By Adem Kılıç, Political Scientist
With the outbreak of the Iran war, one of the greatest concerns globally was that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger an uncontrollable crisis in world energy markets and reshape security approaches.
Indeed, what has happened over the past seven months has clearly demonstrated that these fears were not unfounded.
Predictions that oil prices could rise to as much as $150 per barrel indicated that disruptions in energy supplies could have severe consequences across a wide range of areas, from global production and trade to inflation and government budgets.
As a matter of fact, albeit belatedly, this has begun to happen, particularly with the arrival of the winter months. Europe in particular is no longer hiding the fact that it faces serious energy risks ahead of the winter and is openly voicing that it is on the verge of a major crisis due to rising energy costs.
In the field of defense, meanwhile, confidence in the U.S. security umbrella is being questioned in many areas, from Europe to the Gulf, while new security pacts such as the Mecca Defense Pact are emerging.
Implications for the international system
All these realities are undoubtedly reshaping power relations within the international system.
While the United States has an important protective buffer thanks to its energy production capacity, China has expanded its room for maneuver through alternative supply networks and strategic reserves developed over the years, while European countries are being forced to reassess their energy security and defense independence.
The Gulf countries, meanwhile, are completely reconsidering their economic models, alliance relations, and security approaches.
The picture emerging from all these developments demonstrates that energy crises and security crises can no longer be assessed solely through economic indicators.
It is now clearly evident that the decisive factors are the extent to which countries can withstand external global shocks, how quickly they can reorganize their supply chains, and how well prepared they are for crises in areas such as strategic reserves.
In other words, the lesson of Hormuz shows that energy and defense independence, as well as political influence and strategic autonomy, are becoming key elements of the new world order.
The widening distance between the United States and Europe
The Hormuz crisis has laid bare the extent of Europe’s economic and military dependence on the United States.
Of course, this process does not mean that the transatlantic alliance is coming to an end. However, it has triggered a process in European capitals aimed at ensuring that the security and economic stability of the continent do not remain solely dependent on decisions made by the United States.
Indeed, the European Union has launched critical programs such as SAFE, particularly in the defense sector, with the aim of reducing dependence on external suppliers and strengthening its own production capacity.
For example, under the SAFE program, Europe aims to source at least 50 percent of its defense procurement from within the EU by 2030 and 60 percent by 2035.
Undoubtedly, in addition to reducing external dependence in the defense industry, this could mean new production facilities, technology investments, employment opportunities, and long-term economic expansion for Europe.
In the energy sector, however, Europe faces an even greater state of chaos.
Europe, which has already reduced energy transfers from Russia to a minimum for nearly five years because of the war in Ukraine, is now on the verge of a major crisis as a result of the effects of the crisis in Hormuz.
In summary, while the transatlantic alliance remains important, Europe’s status as a “sovereign power” is gradually eroding, both in terms of security and energy.
Türkiye’s global importance is increasing!
Europe’s search for stronger defense capabilities and diversified sources of supply is creating important opportunities and new responsibilities for Türkiye.
Türkiye is becoming a country that no country in the world would want to lose, thanks to its NATO membership, its position in the Black Sea, its almost fully independent defense industry infrastructure, and its ties with Middle Eastern and Asian countries, particularly the Gulf states.
For example, Türkiye’s geographical position, existing transportation infrastructure, and regional relations are becoming even more important in potential new energy and trade connections that could be developed between the Gulf and Europe.
A similar picture exists in the defense industry.
Europe’s goal of increasing its own production capacity cannot afford to disregard an important defense producer such as Türkiye.
Indeed, Türkiye has become one of the world’s three most important producers of unmanned aerial vehicles, alongside the United States and China, particularly in the field of unmanned aerial vehicles, and currently accounts for 65 percent of sales in this sector according to institutions such as SIPRI.
Türkiye has also become an ally that not only Europe, but also numerous countries stretching from the Gulf to the Caucasus, from Africa to Central Asia, would not want to lose, thanks to its rapidly developing ecosystem in electronic warfare, mass ammunition production, land systems, and various defense technologies.
These developments undoubtedly provide Türkiye with significant diplomatic room for maneuver and accelerate its goals of an independent foreign policy and strategic autonomy.
Those prepared for crises will be the winners of the new era
The lesson from what happened in Hormuz has exposed the vulnerabilities of the global energy system and countries’ security alliances.
Disruptions in industrial production, rising logistics costs, and increased defense spending will keep the effects of the crisis on the global agenda for a long time and accelerate the process of reshaping the global order that has been discussed for years.
While the Gulf countries seek to strengthen their economic resilience by developing new energy and trade corridors, Europe will move toward defense and trade policies aimed at reducing its dependence on the United States.
For Türkiye, this process will bring both risks and significant opportunities.
Strengthening Türkiye’s role in energy and trade connections, bringing its technology and production capacity in the defense industry closer to the point of full independence, and diversifying its partnerships across different regions could enable it to secure a more influential position in the changing global order.
After all, in the new era, international influence will not be measured solely by economic size.
Countries that can anticipate crises, withstand supply disruptions, control supply chains, and establish strong security infrastructures and alliances will wield influence.